Mathematical model for the aquatic stage of Aedes aegypti considering variable egg-hatching rate and inter-specific competition between larval stages
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33044/revuma.3067Abstract
Mosquito-borne diseases like dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, carried by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, pose significant health threats. Controlling these diseases primarily involves reducing mosquito populations. Current approaches rely on simplistic measures to decide on actions like mosquito fogging or larval control. Adult mosquito numbers are often estimated from aquatic populations due to easier counting. While these methods have provided some assistance, there's a need for improvement. Existing risk and population models overlook the various developmental stages of Aedes aegypti and their complex interactions. In this work, several mathematical models for the life cycle of the Aedes aegypti in its aquatic phase are proposed. They consider the different aquatic developmental stages and differ in how the competition between the stages occurs. Then, all the models are discriminated against experimental data to select the one with the best predictive power. The chosen model will help estimate the adult mosquito population with a greater degree of precision as well as when they will emerge. It will also help design better control strategies and better risk indices.
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