Presión tributaria efectiva y potencial en Argentina

Marcelo Garriga; Walter Rosales; Norberto Mangiacone

doi:10.52292/j.estudecon.2018.1370

Autores/as

Marcelo Garriga Universidad Nacional de La Plata
Walter Rosales Universidad Nacional de La Plata
Norberto Mangiacone Universidad Nacional de La Plata

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52292/j.estudecon.2018.1370

Palabras clave:

presión tributaria, estructura tributaria, política fiscal

Resumen

El objetivo de este trabajo es estimar la presión tributaria potencial, que permita inferir si la presión tributaria observada en la Argentina está en un sendero sostenible en el tiempo. Se realizan estimaciones econométricas de corte transversal, para una muestra de 178 países con información de un conjunto de variables explicativas de la presión tributaria para el año 2015. Si bien no existen modelos normativos que sugieran un nivel de presión tributaria óptima, hay un amplio tratamiento empírico en la literatura. Los resultados econométricos muestran que en la Argentina la presión tributaria efectiva estaría considerablemente por arriba de su potencial, poniendo en duda la sostenibilidad temporal de la política impositiva.

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