Sostenibilidad de la deuda pública brasileña: un análisis usando multicointegración

  • Eduardo Lima Campos EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance (FGV/EPGE) and National School of Statistical Science (ENCE/IBGE), Brazil.
  • Rubens Penha Cysne EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance (FGV/EPGE), Brazil.
Palabras clave: deuda pública, sostenibilidad de la deuda, multicointegración

Resumen

Según Bohn (1995), el análisis econométrico convencional de la sostenibilidad, basado en pruebas de raíz unitaria en la serie de deuda del gobierno al PIB o análisis de cointegración entre ingresos y gastos, no es concluyente para verificar la sostenibilidad de la política fiscal. Este documento utiliza el método de multicointegración para investigar la validez de una relación a largo plazo entre los ingresos y gastos
acumulados del gobierno brasileño y su deuda, todo expresado como una proporción del PIB. Leachman et al. (2005) sostienen que esta técnica permite concluir sobre la sostenibilidad o no de la política fiscal. El presente trabajo considera especificaciones que permiten evaluar la reacción de los ingresos y gastos acumulados a los cambios en la deuda con respecto al PIB, utilizando datos mensuales desde diciembre de 1997 hasta junio de 2018. Concluimos que la política fiscal brasileña fue insostenible durante el período de estudio, debido al gasto público excesivo y su trayectoria creciente, principalmente al fi nal de la muestra.

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Publicado
2020-08-24
Cómo citar
Campos, E., & Cysne, R. (2020). Sostenibilidad de la deuda pública brasileña: un análisis usando multicointegración. Estudios Económicos, 37(75), 5-25. Recuperado a partir de https://revistas.uns.edu.ar/ee/article/view/1944
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