Crescimento Econômico e Investimento público em infraestrutura de transportes no Brasil: uma análise de causalidade temporal

Sérgio Ricardo de Brito Gadelha; Camilla Araújo  Soares da Silva

doi:10.52292/j.estudecon.2025.3907

Autores/as

Sérgio Ricardo de Brito Gadelha Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional, Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4685-8438
Camilla Araújo Soares da Silva Instituto Brasileiro de Ensino, Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3620-207X

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52292/j.estudecon.2025.3907

Palabras clave:

Public investment in transport, economic growth, Granger causality test

Resumen

O objetivo do presente estudo é investigar a direção da causalidade entre investimentos públicos federais no setor de infraestrutura de transportes e crescimento econômico no Brasil e nos Estados/Distrito Federal, no período de 1995 a 2021. Foi analisada a estacionariedade das séries temporais, considerando-se a presença de quebras estruturais. Em seguida, foram estimados modelos autorregressivos e de defasagens distribuídas (ARDL). Os resultados econométricos obtidos indicaram a existência de uma relação de bi-causalidade de Granger entre as variáveis analisadas. Em termos de implicações de políticas, investimentos em infraestrutura de transportes incrementam o crescimento econômico, e este crescimento gera uma maior demanda por bens e serviços públicos em infraestrutura, impulsionando mais investimentos no setor

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Citas

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