Intergovernmental fiscal relations and turnout: Evidence from Argentine presidential elections

Osvaldo  Meloni

doi:10.52292/j.estudecon.2026.5856

Autores/as

Osvaldo Meloni Universidad Nacional de Tucumán, Argentina https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1416-405X

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52292/j.estudecon.2026.5856

Palabras clave:

Vertical fiscal imbalance, decentralization, voter turnout, fiscal federalism, presidential elections

Resumen

Este artículo contribuye a dos campos de literatura sobre la participación electoral que han surgido casi de forma independiente, con una superposición mínima entre ellos. Por un lado, aporta nueva evidencia a la agenda de investigación que evalúa el impacto de la tasa de desempleo en la participación electoral y, por otro, contribuye a la literatura que analiza los efectos de la descentralización en la participación electoral. Además, investiga cómo la interacción entre las condiciones económicas y el marco institucional que rige los distintos niveles de gobierno afectan a la participación electoral en el peculiar contexto del federalismo fiscal argentino. Las estimaciones de un panel dinámico que incluye 23 de los 24 distritos subnacionales y las nueve elecciones presidenciales realizadas en el periodo 1989-2023 revelan que las circunstancias económicas desfavorables, representadas por la tasa de desempleo, incentivan a los ciudadanos a participar en la votación y que las transferencias automáticas, medidas como porcentaje de los ingresos totales del distrito, disminuyen la participación. El hallazgo más relevante es que la interacción de ambas variables genera un efecto de movilización para los distritos con transferencias automáticas más bajas, mientras que induce a la abstención electoral en distritos que se benefician de transferencias automáticas más altas.

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Citas

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