Intergovernmental fiscal relations and turnout: Evidence from Argentine presidential elections

Osvaldo  Meloni

doi:10.52292/j.estudecon.2026.5856

Autores

Osvaldo Meloni Universidad Nacional de Tucumán, Argentina https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1416-405X

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52292/j.estudecon.2026.5856

Palavras-chave:

Vertical fiscal imbalance, decentralization, voter turnout, fiscal federalism, presidential elections

Resumo

This paper contributes to two strands of the literature on voter engagement that have developed largely independently, with minimal overlap. On one hand, it provides new evidence to the research agenda assessing the impact of unemployment on voter participation. On the other hand, it adds to the literature that analyzes the effects of decentralization on voter turnout. The study also examines how economic conditions interact with the institutional framework that structures different levels of government to shape electoral participation in the context of Argentine fiscal federalism. District-level dynamic panel estimations of presidential elections for the period 1989–2023 reveal that unfavorable economic conditions, measured by the unemployment rate, encourage citizens to vote. Large automatic transfers, measured as percentage of total district revenues, reduce turnout. The most notable finding concerns the interaction between these variables. This interaction generates a mobilization effect in districts with lower automatic transfers, whereas it produces a withdrawal effect in districts that receive higher automatic transfers.

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