Devaluaciones reales y aceleraciones inflacionarias

Pablo Carreras Mayer

doi:10.52292/j.estudecon.2017.712

Autores/as

Pablo Carreras Mayer UBA. CEDES

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52292/j.estudecon.2017.712

Palabras clave:

Macroeconomía Abierta, Inflación, Tipo de Cambio

Resumen

Las economías abiertas pueden enfrentar un trade-off entre aumentos en el tipo de cambio real (TCR) y cambios en la inflación para horizontes relevantes. Se aplica una metodología a un panel mensual de 98 países para el período 1970-2004 identificando episodios de incrementos "significativos y duraderos" del TCR, clasificándolos en "aceleradores" o "no aceleradores" según conlleven cambios apreciables en la tasa de inflación. Se aprecia elevada heterogeneidad en la respuesta inflacionaria entre regiones y entre países emergentes y avanzados. La probabilidad de episodios "aceleradores" (i) se incrementa a mayor inflación inicial, (ii) no resulta influida por la brecha de producto, (iii) disminuye con la presencia de regímenes de Inflation Targeting, y (iv) disminuye a mayor grado de "anclaje cambiario" posterior al episodio

Descargas

Los datos de descargas todavía no están disponibles.

Citas

Agénor, P. R., & Montiel, P. J. (2008). Development Macroeconomics. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

Akerlof, G. A., & Yellen, J. L. (1986). Efficiency wage models of the labor market. New York: Cambridge University Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511559594

Aron, J., Macdonald, R., & Muellbauer, J. (2014). Exchange rate pass-through in developing and emerging markets: A survey of conceptual, methodological and policy issues, and selected empirical findings. Journal of Development Studies, 50 (1), 101-143. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2013.847180

Bacchetta, P., & Wincoop, E. (2003). Why do consumer prices react less than import prices to exchange rates? Journal of the european economic association, 1 (2-3), 662-670. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/154247603322391297

Ball, L. M., & Sheridan, N. (2004). Does inflation targeting matter? En B. S. Bernanke & M. Woodford (Eds.). The Inflation-Targeting Debate (pp. 249-282). Chicago, Illinois: University of Chicago Press. Recuperado de http://www.nber.org/chapters/c9561.pdf. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226044736.003.0007

Barro, R. J., & Gordon, D. B. (1983). Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 12 (1), 101-121. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(83)90051-X

Burstein, A., Eichenbaum, M., & Rebelo, S. (2005). Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate. The Journal of Political Economy, 113 (4), 742-784. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/431254

Bussière, M., Saxena, S. C., & Tovar, C. E. (2012). Chronicle of currency collapses: Reexamining the effects on output. Journal of International Money and Finance, 31 (4), 680-708. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2012.01.008

Ca'Zorzi, M., Hahn, E., & Sánchez, M. (2007). Exchange rate pass-through in emerging markets. The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, (4), 84-102.

Cagan, P. (1956). The Monetary Dynamics of Hyper-inflations. En M. Friedman (Ed.). Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money (pp. 25-117). Chicago: Chicago University Press.

Céspedes, L. F., Chang, R., & Velasco, A. (2014). Is inflation targeting still on target? The recent experience of Latin America. International Finance, 17 (2), 185-208. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12047

Dornbusch, R. (1980). Open economy macroeconomics. New York: Basic Books.

Dornbusch, R., & Fischer, S. (1993). Moderate inflation. The World Bank Economic Review, 7 (1), 1-44. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/7.1.1

Feenstra, R. C., & Kendall, J. D. (1997). Pass-through of exchange rates and purchasing power parity. Journal of International Economics, 43 (12), 237-261. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(96)01473-0

Fischer, S., Sahay, R., & Végh, C. A. (2002). Modern Hyper- and High Inflations. Journal of Economic literature, 40 (3), 837-880. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.40.3.837

Frankel, J., Parsley, D., & Wei, S.-J. (2012). Slow pass-through around the world: a new import for developing countries? Open Economies Review, 23 (2), 213-251. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-011-9210-8

Frenkel, R. (1986). Salarios e inflación en América Latina. Resultados de investigaciones recientes en la Argentina, Brasil, Colombia, Costa Rica y Chile. Desarrollo Económico, 25 (100), 587-622. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/3466847

Frenkel, R. (1989). El régimen de alta inflación y el nivel de actividad. CEDES, Working paper N.° 26. Recuperado de http://www.itf.org.ar/ingles/pdf/documentos/51-1989.pdf

Frenkel, R., & Rapetti, M. (2010). A concise history of exchange rate regimes in Latin America. Washington, D. C.: Center for Economic Policy and Research. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199571048.013.0008

Froot, K., & Rogoff, K. (Eds.) (1995). Chapter 32: Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates. En Handbook of International Economics, vol. 3. (1647-1688). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1573-4404(05)80012-7

Goldberg, P. K., & Hellerstein, R. (2008). A structural approach to explaining incomplete exchange-rate pass-through and pricing-to-market. The American Economic Review, 98 (2), 423-429. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.98.2.423

Gonçalves, C. E. S., & Salles, J. M. (2008). Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say? Journal of Development Economics, 85 (1), 312-318. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2006.07.002

Hammond, G. (2012). State of the art of inflation targeting. In Handbook No. 29. London: Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England. Recuperado de http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/education/Documents/ccbs/handbooks/pdf/ccbshb29.pdf

Hausman, J. A., Abrevaya, J., & Scott-Morton, F. M. (1998). Misclassification of the dependent variable in a discrete-response setting. Journal of Econometrics, 87 (2), 239-269. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00015-3

Heymann, D. (1986). Tres ensayos sobre inflación y políticas de estabilización. CEPAL, Working Paper N.° 18. Recuperado de http://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/28518 DOI: https://doi.org/10.18356/ae2c4934-es

Heymann, D., & Leijonhufvud, A. (1995). High inflation: The Arne Ryde memorial lectures. Oxford: Clarendon Press.

Hicks, J. (1989). A market theory of money. London: Oxford University Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/0198287240.001.0001

Horrace, W. C., & Oaxaca, R. L. (2006). Results on the bias and inconsistency of ordinary least squares for the linear probability model. Economics Letters, 90 (3), 321-327. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2005.08.024

Ito, T., & Sato, K. (2008). Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: Vector Autoregression Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40 (7), 1407-1438. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2008.00165.x

McDonald, I. M., & Solow, R. M. (1981). Wage bargaining and employment. The American Economic Review, 71 (5), 896-908.

Olivera, J. H. (1967). Aspectos dinámicos de la inflación estructural. Desarrollo Económico, 7 (27), 261-266. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/3465586

Olivera, J. H. (1991). Equilibrio social, equilibrio de mercado e inflación estructural. Desarrollo Económico, 30 (120), 487-493. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/3466890

Phelps, E. S. (1969). The New Microeconomics in Inflation and Employment Theory. The American Economic Review, 59 (2), 147-160.

Shambaugh, J. C. (2004). The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119 (1), 301-352. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1162/003355304772839605

Taylor, J. B. (2000). Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms. European economic review, 44 (7), 1389-1408. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(00)00037-4

Tommasi, M. (1994). The Consequences of Price Instability on Search Markets: Toward Understanding the Effects of Inflation. The American Economic Review, 84 (5), 1385-1396.

Vera, L. (2014). Inflación estructural redux. Ensayos económicos, 69, 37-99.

Wooldridge, J. M. (2010). Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT press.