Devaluaciones reales y aceleraciones inflacionarias

Pablo Carreras Mayer

doi:10.52292/j.estudecon.2017.712

Authors

Pablo Carreras Mayer UBA. CEDES

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52292/j.estudecon.2017.712

Keywords:

Open Economy Macroeconomics, Inflation, Foreign Exchange

Abstract

Open economies may experience trade-offs between increments in the real exchange rate (RER) and in flation accelerations lasting throughout relevant time horizons. A methodology is applied on a monthly panel comprising 98 countries during 1970-2014. Episodes of “significant and extended” increases of the RER are identified, classifying them as “accelerating” or “non-accelerating” according to inflation dynamics. The in flationary response of the regions under study is highly heterogenous, as well as between emerging and advanced economies. The probability of an “accelerating” episode (i) increases the higher the initial in flation rate, (ii) is not affected by the output gap, (iii) diminishes under Inflation Targeting regimes, and (iv) diminishes the stronger is the nominal exchange rate anchor after the devaluation.

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