Entre as reformas e os deficits: vinte anos de previdencia social no Brasil

Benito Adelmo Salomão

doi:10.52292/j.estudecon.2024.3738

Authors

Benito Adelmo Salomão Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7462-9763

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52292/j.estudecon.2024.3738

Keywords:

Social security system, Rural regime, Urban regime, Bounds testing, ARDL

Abstract

This article analyzed the sustainability of the Brazilian social security system between January 2003 and June 2022 through autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. The cointegration analysis shows that, despite the deficits, the long-term relationships between revenues and expenditures are maintained for the General Social Security Regime, also disaggregating between the urban and rural regimes. The short-term analysis measured by error correction mechanisms (ECM) indicate that the adjustment dynamics to the long-term path is too slow: less than 5% of the shocks return to the long-term trend in the first month in all models. This may be behind the consecutive deficits presented by the General Social Security Regime in recent decades.

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