Regla fiscal y fondo anticiclico en base al PIB y precios de los commodities en un pais federal

María José Granado

doi:10.52292/j.estudecon.2025.4213

Authors

María José Granado National University of Tucumán, Argentina https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2789-3307

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52292/j.estudecon.2025.4213

Keywords:

Fiscal policy, countercyclical fund, business cycle, commodity prices

Abstract

A fiscal rule is proposed for Argentina, where national public spending is determined according to the structural public revenue of the nation, complying with a structural fiscal balance goal, as is done in Chile. Based on the rule, a countercyclical fund is established, which must take into account fiscal federalism, since Argentina is a federal country with centralized resource collection. Structural revenues, which arise from adjusting tax collections for the cycles of GDP and commodity prices, allow estimating potential savings for the period 1998-2018. With a fiscal rule, significant savings could have been achieved to soften the economic cycle and reduce dependence on international credit, thereby promoting a sustainable fiscal policy.

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