Demanda por servicios turísticos: análisis de su evolución en un modelo autoorganizado

Abstract

The dynamics of tourists and guests can be modeled in a varied of ways and, in most of this models tourist destinations behave as dynamic evolving complex systems. In this paper we represent an economic problem in which the affluence of tourists to a specific place depends on the "state" of the place (infrastructure, maintenance, ambiance’s conditions, etc) that in turn depends on the individuals decisions on these parameters, that are influenced by the behaviour of the other agents. We introduce a model of the interactions between natural resources, residents, tourists and authorities in the self-organized kind of evolution of a tourist destination. The model, starting up from simple components can produce very complex behaviours. Because of the complexity of the model a computational analysis is required. We show that the model can reproduce several meaningful situations. Depending on the levels of the system parameters we can detect the possibility of mass tourism (and a negative crowding effect on environment) or sustainable management of the destination. We show that when preferences of tourists and/or residents induce the depredation of the natural resources and disdain for the environmental quality of the region, the authorities cannot reverse the negative behaviour of the agents by investing on preservation; they have to punish non cooperative agents. The model also shows that, when all the participants are cooperative, the environmental quality improves and tourism demand increases, inducing, in turn an increase in welfare.