Estudio de opiniones sobre el desempeño económico: evidencia para los países de América Latina y el Caribe

Martín Llada

doi:10.52292/j.estudecon.2021.2357

Autores

Martín Llada Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y CONICET-Universidad de Buenos Aires. Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política de Buenos Aires, Argentina https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7526-8816

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52292/j.estudecon.2021.2357

Palavras-chave:

opiniones, expectativas, sentimiento, macroeconomía

Resumo

Este trabajo estudia asociaciones entre opiniones sobre desempeño económico y flujos de información económica. Para 18 países de América Latina y el Caribe en el período 1995-2016, se encuentra 1) una asociación positiva entre un indicador de expectativas y el indicador de evaluaciones económicas esperadas, 2) controlando por las expectativas reportadas en el período t, información disponible en t-1 — factible de ser incorporada para formular expectativas— contribuye a explicar la evolución de las evaluación esperadas, 3) se evidencia instancias de sub y sobre-reacción y 4) no se evidencia heterogeneidad en las opiniones de individuos con diferentes características sociodemográficas e inclinación política. Los resultados 1, 2 y 3 son inconsistentes con los postulados de los modelos FIRE (full-information rational expectation).

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