O Comércio inexplorado entre Brasil e Ásia: uma abordagem através do modelo gravitacional

Sílvia Letícia Bampi; André Filipe Zago de Azevedo; Magnus dos Reis

doi:10.52292/j.estudecon.2020.1391

Autores

Sílvia Letícia Bampi Faculdade João Paulo II, Universidade de Passo Fundo (UPF), Brasil
André Filipe Zago de Azevedo Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos (Unisinos), Brasil
Magnus dos Reis Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos (Unisinos), Brasil

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.52292/j.estudecon.2020.1391

Palavras-chave:

Comércio internacional, Modelo gravitacional, Asia, Brasil

Resumo

O presente estudo buscou estimar o comércio potencial do Brasil com o continente asiático no período de 2000 a 2014, utilizando uma amostra de 75 países. Para evitar problemas observados em estudos prévios, estimou-se a equação gravitacional por meio do estimador de Pseudo Máxima Verossimilhança de Poisson (PPML, na sigla inglesa), calculando-se o intervalo de confi ança dos coefi cientes com o método Delta. O modelo baseou-se em dados em painel com dois conjuntos de efeitos fi xos. Em termos absolutos, haveria um potencial de expansão do comércio brasileiro com os países asiáticos selecionados de US$ 5645 milhões, o equivalente a 7.6% do comércio médio anual observado no período 2000-2014.

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